Summary
THE DEATH of the Pope may have forced Tony Blair to postpone calling the general election by a day, but that will make little difference: this week the speed of the election battle will change as the campaign begins in earnest. The focus remains on Labour and on voters' flagging trust in Mr Blair and his record. For Labour strategists the most worrying matter is the volatility of the public mood. The most recent weekend poll gives Labour a six-point lead, which would still give Labour a large majority, and there is no consistent Tory recovery in sight yet. But especially in key southern marginal seats, many voters remain in punitive mood - over Iraq, over public services, and over the perceived arrogance in Mr Blair's style of leadership.
That surely explains why Mr Blair's old ally Peter Mandelson has recently visited Downing Street, as Mr Blair struggles to regain the kind of clear edge enjoyed by Labour in both previous elections. It also explains the note of desperation in the Government's efforts to save the Chinese deal to take over the failing Rover group, a major issue for several key West Midlands constituencies. For the Conservatives, the frustrations are of a different kind: despite a preelection campaign which has had the Government on the run over issues including immigration and tax, that refuses to translate into solid new support, with their poll scores staying stubbornly in the "core" region of the low 30 points. True, they still have some key areas on which to focus in a campaign - notably crime - but they have yet to explain to voters how their many-pronged attack translates into a coherent programme. All this should leave the Liberal Democrats in an excellent position to make real inroads into both of the major parties and scythe Labour's majority. Yet their own campaign has been lacklustre to date. Last week's evasive initiatives on crime were an example of the party floundering when presented with the question of its own programme as opposed to its attack on others.See the full content of this document
Extract
Now the Real Election Battle Begins
Charles...
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